February 2026 Economic Overview U.S. economic growth slowed more than expected at the end of 2025 as a government shutdown weighed on spending and investment. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4 2025,

Executive Summary The U.S. economy continues to show notable resilience, entering 2026 on a firm footing. Fourth quarter growth remained solid, driven by strong consumer demand, AI-related investment, and high productivity gains, following a robust 4.4% GDP expansion in Q3 2025. Despite risks stemming from potential trade wars

Executive Summary The U.S. economy entered late 2025 with signs of robust growth, as Q3 GDP expanded at a strong 4.3% annualized pace. However, growth is expected to moderate in early 2026 amid a tightening labor market, slowing wage growth, and disruptions related to the recent government shutdown.

Executive Summary The holiday season has begun strongly, and the U.S. economy is expected to end the year on a solid footing. According to the BEA, GDP contracted 0.6% in the first quarter, while the second quarter saw a 3.8% increase. Initial estimates for the third quarter

Executive Summary  The economy grew at a healthy rate, with the 1st estimate coming in at 2.8%, slightly down from 3% in Q2, driven by strong consumer spending despite the weight of the still high interest rates.   Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the US economic activity, accelerated

Executive Summary  The labor market remains tight, which continues to push up the price of services, and we don’t expect this trend to reverse any time soon. At the same time, consumer spending remained strong in October (though less so than the previous month) and confidence has seen a

Truflation: US Inflation Update  October 2023 At the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 1 November, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% for the second month in a row. The market took this as an indication that the central bank