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The $70 Trillion Problem: Why Pension Funds Need Better Inflation Data

The $70 Trillion Problem: Why Pension Funds Need Better Inflation Data

By Stefan Rust, CEO, Truflation Market-based inflation expectations are rising across the curve. Polymarket currently prices a 100% probability of US inflation exceeding 3% in 2026, and economists at PIIE estimate a material risk of it surpassing 4% by year-end. Oil price increases, tariff pass-through, fiscal expansion, tighter labor supply,

Leadership Transition at the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh Succeeds Jerome Powell as Chair

Leadership Transition at the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh Succeeds Jerome Powell as Chair

Today, May 15, 2026, marks one of the most-watched leadership handovers at the Federal Reserve in years. Jerome Powell’s 2nd 4-year term as Chair officially wraps up today, and Kevin Warsh is stepping straight into the big seat after the Senate confirmed him 54-45 on May 13. That vote?

Why the $130 Trillion Bond Market Needs Real-Time Inflation Data

Why the $130 Trillion Bond Market Needs Real-Time Inflation Data

The bond market is the foundation of modern finance. At $130 trillion globally, it sets the price of money itself, from determining your mortgage rate, corporate borrowing costs, and the valuation of every stock in your portfolio. This massive market has a critical blind spot: it’s pricing the future

Introducing Truflation Predict: The Future of Economic Prediction Markets

Introducing Truflation Predict: The Future of Economic Prediction Markets

by Stefan Rust I’m incredibly excited to announce the launch of Truflation Predict. For the first time, users will predict economic and financial outcomes while maintaining complete control over their funds. No intermediaries. No custody risk. Just transparent, self-custodial prediction markets built on dedicated, data-centric, blockchain infrastructure, TRUF.NETWORK

April CPI Number - Oliver Rust Commentary

April CPI Number - Oliver Rust Commentary

CPI came in "Hotter than Expected," "Highest in Three Years," but…. …it was driven by energy and an imputed methodological error in Shelter. Prices paid by consumers for goods and services, as measured by the BLS CPI, rose faster than expected in April. Another sharp increase

April BLS CPI & Truflation's CPI Spaces Recap - May 12, 2026

April BLS CPI & Truflation's CPI Spaces Recap - May 12, 2026

May 12, 8 AM ET, Truflation hosted its monthly X Spaces session to share our CPI forecast and economic report highlights ahead of the official BLS release. The session featured Truflation's Head of Data, Oliver Rust, presenting the proprietary forecast, followed by a discussion with economists and market

Truflation Launches T-1: The CPI Forecast the Market Has Been Missing

Truflation Launches T-1: The CPI Forecast the Market Has Been Missing

Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its Consumer Price Index report at 8:30 AM ET. Every month, markets react. Traders scramble, portfolios shift, and everyone rushes to figure out what it means for them — all in the same 30-second window. That window just got a lot wider.

The Frozen Labor Market: AI, Automation, and the Quiet Before the Storm

The Frozen Labor Market: AI, Automation, and the Quiet Before the Storm

The U.S. labor market looks quiet from the outside. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 6.9 million job openings, layoffs little changed at 1.9 million, and quits holding at 3.2 million — all as of March 2026. Recent Unemployment weekly reports looked technically positive, with the lowest

Urea, Fertilizer, and Food Prices. More Inflation on the Horizon?

Urea, Fertilizer, and Food Prices. More Inflation on the Horizon?

Urea Supply Disruptions 2026: Geopolitics Just Turned Fertilizer into a Major Inflation Risk As macro analysts tracking inflation dynamics through the Truflation lens, we’re always watching commodity supply shocks that hit agricultural input costs, food CPI components, and broader market volatility head-on. Right now, the urea market stands out

Iran-Hormuz Tensions Escalate Sharply on May 4, 2026

Iran-Hormuz Tensions Escalate Sharply on May 4, 2026

President Trump launched "Project Freedom" today, deploying U.S. Navy destroyers, over 100 aircraft, and 15,000 personnel to escort stranded commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The operation aims to break the Iranian-imposed restrictions on neutral shipping amid the ongoing dual blockade. Key incidents today: * Iran

Truflation Argentina CPI – The Upcoming 2026 Weight Update

Product Updates

Truflation Argentina CPI – The Upcoming 2026 Weight Update

Truflation is pleased to announce the completion of the annual review and approval of updated expenditure weights for the Truflation Argentina CPI Inflation Index. The Truflation CPI Board has reviewed the latest available data on Argentina's household consumption patterns and approved the updated weights. These changes will take

Truflation on Fox Business

Truflation on Fox Business

0:00 /0:23 1× Truflation was discussed on Fox Business again today, this time by Mike Lee, the Founder of Michael Lee Strategy, in the context of Kevin Warsh's calls for reforms to inflation measurement and methodologies. "Kevin Warsh is all about looking for alternative sources

ECB Bank Lending Survey Q1 2026: Banks Slam the Brakes on Credit

ECB Bank Lending Survey Q1 2026: Banks Slam the Brakes on Credit

ECB Bank Lending Survey was published 28 April 2026 The latest Euro Area Bank Lending Survey just put a big question mark over future credit amid geopolitical and energy shocks. Euro-area banks tightened credit standards more aggressively than expected in Q1 2026, driven by soaring risk perceptions, lower risk tolerance,

Slasher Miran vs. Fed Hawks – FOMC 28-29 April

Slasher Miran vs. Fed Hawks – FOMC 28-29 April

Yesterday’s FOMC Bloodbath Was the Most Divisive Meeting in 34 Years. Here’s the Full Scoop (and What It Means for Your Next Rate Cut) Yesterday’s FOMC meeting on April 29, 2026, was not the snooze-fest everyone expected. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.

Truflation BEA PCE as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE

Product Updates

Truflation BEA PCE as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE

Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics Version 1.0 - April 10, 2026 1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy. Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by the U.S.

Truflation PCE Divergence Index is Now Live

Product Updates

Truflation PCE Divergence Index is Now Live

In a world where inflation data moves markets and shapes policy, timing is everything. Today, Truflation is proud to launch the Truflation BEA PCE Divergence Index (TruPCEDIV), a powerful new tool that shines a real-time spotlight on the gap between official BEA PCE numbers and Truflation’s PCE index. While

Truflation US CPI as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE Index

Product Updates

Truflation US CPI as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE Index

Version 1.0 - April 2, 2026 Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics 1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy. Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by the U.S.

Truflation CPI UK Index – 2026 Weight Update Announcement

Product Updates

Truflation CPI UK Index – 2026 Weight Update Announcement

Truflation is pleased to announce the completion of the annual review and approval of updated expenditure weights for the Truflation CPI UK Index (TruCPI-UK). The Truflation CPI Board met to discuss the standard annual weighing changes, which reflect the latest available data on UK household consumption patterns. The Board has

Truflation Now on Kalshi - Real-Time Inflation Data Meets Prediction Markets

Truflation Now on Kalshi - Real-Time Inflation Data Meets Prediction Markets

We're excited to announce that a suite of Truflation indexes is now live and tradable on Kalshi, the leading U.S.-regulated prediction market platform. This integration brings our independent, real-time macroeconomic data directly into event contracts, allowing traders, hedgers, and forecasters to take positions on daily movements

Oil Prices Plummeting. Can inflation drop as fast?

Oil Prices Plummeting. Can inflation drop as fast?

Oil prices dropped sharply this week, falling by over 10% on April 17, after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial ships during the ceasefire. Crude oil went from as high as $116 on April 7, only 10 days ago, to $94 yesterday and briefly below $81

Washington's "Inflation Lie" Has Cost America TRILLIONS in Debt – And Truflation Is the Fix They’re Too Scared to Adopt

Washington's "Inflation Lie" Has Cost America TRILLIONS in Debt – And Truflation Is the Fix They’re Too Scared to Adopt

Picture this: It’s 1996. Your grandparents are retiring. The government promises Social Security checks will keep pace with the rising cost of living. Fast-forward to today. The national debt is exploding past $39 trillion, annual deficits are routinely topping $1.5–2 trillion, and politicians scream about “unsustainable” spending.

Import-Export come in scorching hot but still below expectations

Import-Export come in scorching hot but still below expectations

BLS just released its March 2026 Import & Export Prices. Import In March, U.S. import prices rose 2.1% year-over-year, up from 1% in Feb and 0.3% in Jan, the highest since Dec 2024, and slightly above the market consensus of 2%. On a month-over-month basis, import prices

March Argentina inflation vs Truflation’s data — Who's hotter?

March Argentina inflation vs Truflation’s data — Who's hotter?

Today, INDEC released Argentina's headline inflation for March 2026: * Monthly inflation was 3.4% (up from 2.9% in Feb, and above consensus ~3.0%) * Year-to-date (Q1) was 9.4% * 12-month rolling was 32.6% year-over-year, down slightly from 33.1% in Feb, but higher than the market

PPI comes in hot on energy but still below expectations.

PPI comes in hot on energy but still below expectations.

PPI heats up a lot, but much less than expected. * On a 12-month basis, headline PPI jumped to +4.0% YoY, significantly up from 3.4% last month, and the hottest reading since February 2023, but still below market expectations of 4.6%. * The Producer Price Index for final demand

Trends driving Truflation CPI increases — April 2026

Trends driving Truflation CPI increases — April 2026

The US inflation today, April 13, is 1.84%, up from 1.26% at the beginning of the month. Multiple categories experienced a re-acceleration in inflation in April. * Gasoline and fuel costs * Clothing * Recreation (event tickets, subscriptions, and services) * Household goods * Other lodgings (like short stays) * Education * and Communication The