BLS CPI up by 0.9% to 3.3% YoY — Correctly Forecasted by Truflation
The headline US inflation (CPI) came in at 3.3% YoY, up 0.9% from 2.4% in February, and in line with Truflation's prediction of 3.3%.
The Truflation forecast of 3.3% for March CPI was shared with our subscribers 2 days ahead of the official CPI release in an exclusive inflation report. We release our forecasts monthly, 1-2 days before the BLS CPI.
This latest increase follows trends observed in Truflation's inflation index, driven by rapidly rising gasoline and transportation prices.
The official CPI increases were also mainly linked to those energy commodities: gasoline and fuel oil prices.
The official core CPI (excluding energy and food, which are more volatile items) rose only slightly to 2.6% YoY, from 2.5% the prior month.
Monthly CPI was 0.2% MoM in March, unchanged from February.
How do we forecast the official CPI, also known as headline US inflation?
To predict the BLS CPI, we:
- Age our data by >40 days (because our data precedes BLS by ~41 days)
- Convert the daily index to a monthly index
- Compare it to the BLS to extrapolate the official CPI
We have been predicting BLS CPI for over 2 years with very high accuracy of ~99.92% (excluding January CPI predictions, when the BLS changes its weights, so we offer a range rather than a single number).
How can you use Truflation predictions?
This week, our teammate used the numbers to double his trade on a prediction market. This is perhaps the most straightforward way to use Truflation.
Other options include trading egg or gasoline prices, with Truflation data arriving earlier than the government data used to settle various prediction markets. This requires users to extrapolate how much our data precedes the data used for settlements to make correct predictions.
Our data has also been found to be correlated with Bitcoin prices, and is used by some algorithms to hedge against inflation with BTC purchases.
Disclaimer
Truflation doesn't offer financial advice; it solely provides educational content. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Do your own due diligence.
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