Macro News - Truflation

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Macro News

A collection of 242 posts

Oil Prices Plummeting. Can inflation drop as fast?

Oil Prices Plummeting. Can inflation drop as fast?

Oil prices dropped sharply this week, falling by over 10% on April 17, after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial ships during the ceasefire. Crude oil went from as high as $116 on April 7, only 10 days ago, to $94 yesterday and briefly below $81

Washington's "Inflation Lie" Has Cost America TRILLIONS in Debt – And Truflation Is the Fix They’re Too Scared to Adopt

Washington's "Inflation Lie" Has Cost America TRILLIONS in Debt – And Truflation Is the Fix They’re Too Scared to Adopt

Picture this: It’s 1996. Your grandparents are retiring. The government promises Social Security checks will keep pace with the rising cost of living. Fast-forward to today. The national debt is exploding past $39 trillion, annual deficits are routinely topping $1.5–2 trillion, and politicians scream about “unsustainable” spending.

Import-Export come in scorching hot but still below expectations

Import-Export come in scorching hot but still below expectations

BLS just released its March 2026 Import & Export Prices. Import In March, U.S. import prices rose 2.1% year-over-year, up from 1% in Feb and 0.3% in Jan, the highest since Dec 2024, and slightly above the market consensus of 2%. On a month-over-month basis, import prices

March Argentina inflation vs Truflation’s data — Who's hotter?

March Argentina inflation vs Truflation’s data — Who's hotter?

Today, INDEC released Argentina's headline inflation for March 2026: * Monthly inflation was 3.4% (up from 2.9% in Feb, and above consensus ~3.0%) * Year-to-date (Q1) was 9.4% * 12-month rolling was 32.6% year-over-year, down slightly from 33.1% in Feb, but higher than the market

PPI comes in hot on energy but still below expectations.

PPI comes in hot on energy but still below expectations.

PPI heats up a lot, but much less than expected. * On a 12-month basis, headline PPI jumped to +4.0% YoY, significantly up from 3.4% last month, and the hottest reading since February 2023, but still below market expectations of 4.6%. * The Producer Price Index for final demand

Trends driving Truflation CPI increases — April 2026

Trends driving Truflation CPI increases — April 2026

The US inflation today, April 13, is 1.84%, up from 1.26% at the beginning of the month. Multiple categories experienced a re-acceleration in inflation in April. * Gasoline and fuel costs * Clothing * Recreation (event tickets, subscriptions, and services) * Household goods * Other lodgings (like short stays) * Education * and Communication The

BLS CPI up by 0.9% to 3.3% YoY — Correctly Forecasted by Truflation

BLS CPI up by 0.9% to 3.3% YoY — Correctly Forecasted by Truflation

The headline US inflation (CPI) came in at 3.3% YoY, up 0.9% from 2.4% in February, and in line with Truflation's prediction of 3.3%. The Truflation forecast of 3.3% for March CPI was shared with our subscribers 2 days ahead of the official

Core PCE drops — Truflation Praised

Core PCE drops — Truflation Praised

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) today released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February 2026. * Headline PCE +2.8% year-over-year (YoY), same as the previous month * Headline PCE +0.4% month-over-month (MoM), up from 0.3% in January * Core PCE (excluding food and energy): +3.0%

Truflation as a Leading Indicator of the Official BLS CPI Inflation Measure

Truflation as a Leading Indicator of the Official BLS CPI Inflation Measure

This is an updated report based on the latest regression analysis by the Truflation data team. 1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy. Traditional measures such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by the U.S Bureau

Get Ready for the US CPI Release. Your Edge Is Here

Get Ready for the US CPI Release. Your Edge Is Here

This week is all about inflation, with the upcoming February PCE and March CPI being released April 9 and 10, respectively. With the next official BLS CPI just around the corner, Truflation has you covered with our exclusive monthly report containing the much-coveted BLS CPI forecast. The report drops T-1

Truflation Launches an Independent Benchmark for U.S. Pay Inflation

Truflation Launches an Independent Benchmark for U.S. Pay Inflation

Truflation is proud to announce the official release of the Truflation U.S. Pay Index (TruPay-US Index), a next-generation measure of pay growth across the American labor market. Designed as a timely and transparent alternative to traditional wage indicators, the TruPay-US Index tracks overall pay inflation by combining wage growth

Has your salary kept pace with inflation? Check with Truflation Calculator

Has your salary kept pace with inflation? Check with Truflation Calculator

If you’ve felt like your paycheck doesn’t go as far as it used to, you can now quickly and easily check for yourself. Introducing: the Truflation Salary Inflation Calculator, an easy-to-use tool that shows you exactly what your salary should be today vs when you started earning it.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Report – March 2026

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Report – March 2026

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index edged higher to 91.8 in March (from 91.0), beating expectations of 87.8. This marks the second consecutive modest gain in consumer confidence. However, the index remains on a general downward trajectory observed since 2021 and sits well below pre-pandemic averages Despite

Truflation Starter Package & Credits

Truflation Starter Package & Credits

We're thrilled to announce an evolution in how you access Truflation's real-time, institutional-grade inflation and economic data. Starting this week, we're rolling out an enhanced pricing structure designed to give you more flexibility, better value, and the power to scale exactly as your needs

Truflation Releases Updated 2026 CPI Weights to Match Consumer Expenditures

Truflation Releases Updated 2026 CPI Weights to Match Consumer Expenditures

The Truflation Data Team just released our annual CPI weighting update. The new relative importance weights for the 2026 TruCPI-US Inflation Index are derived from 2025 household spending patterns, ensuring the index continues to mirror actual consumer spending with precision and timeliness. Implications for Market Participants These recalibrated weights offer

Gas Prices Continue to Put Inflationary Pressure on Consumers

Gas Prices Continue to Put Inflationary Pressure on Consumers

The surge in gas prices continued inflationary pressure on Truflation CPI. It will be interesting to see whether that pressure already shows up in the March BLS CPI due on the 10th of April. As of today, gas prices have increased 30% over the past month, which is feeding directly

Labor Productivity Shows Solid Increase Despite Q4 Revisions

Labor Productivity Shows Solid Increase Despite Q4 Revisions

Today, the BLS released its revised Productivity & Costs report for Q4 2025 (Revised) and 2025 Annual Averages. Nonfarm business sector rose 1.8% annualized in Q4 2025 (down from the preliminary 2.8% estimate), as real output grew 1.5% while hours worked edged down 0.2%. Year-over-year, productivity

What FOMC Black Sheet Means for Inflation, GDP and Rate Cuts

What FOMC Black Sheet Means for Inflation, GDP and Rate Cuts

On March 18, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), following the March 17–18 policy meeting. This document reflects the individual forecasts of the 19 FOMC participants for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, headline and core PCE inflation, and the

FOMC Keeps Rates Unchanged Mid Global Uncertainties

FOMC Keeps Rates Unchanged Mid Global Uncertainties

The FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% (11-1 vote) on March 18, as anticipated by the markets. The decision passed with most members in favor. Only Stephen Miran voted to lower the target range by 25 basis points. The FOMC statement noted solid economic

Oil Shock Effects on Consumer Inflation and Truflation Gasoline Index.

Oil Shock Effects on Consumer Inflation and Truflation Gasoline Index.

Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran commencing February 28, 2026, has produced the largest oil supply disruption on record. Oil prices were gradually rising even before that, from mid-December, due to global tensions and increased seasonal demand. Now, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports

Truflation Releases the US Gasoline Index.

Product Updates

Truflation Releases the US Gasoline Index.

We're thrilled to announce the launch of the new Truflation Gasoline Index, which aggregates gasoline prices at the pump and provides national, regional, and state-level data for deeper analysis of this important inflation-driving category. Go to Gasoline Index This index release is particularly relevant at the moment, given

FOMC not expected to cut rates based on outdated CPI and PCE data.

FOMC not expected to cut rates based on outdated CPI and PCE data.

Tomorrow, March 17, the Fed starts its March FOMC meeting with the final interest-rate decision on Wednesday, March 18. Markets expect interest rates to remain unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range (350-375 bps) for this and the next FOMC meeting. This has been the case since at least

JOLTS show a stagnant US job market in line with Truflation data.

JOLTS show a stagnant US job market in line with Truflation data.

The latest JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) are out for January 2026 (from the BEA). Job openings increased by 6.9 million (4.2%), little changed from December, which was revised slightly from 6.542 to 6.55 million (4.0%). New January jobs were added mainly in finance

January PCE from BEA brings no surprises, unlike real-time PCE.

January PCE from BEA brings no surprises, unlike real-time PCE.

The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index came in cooler for January at 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations, while core PCE inflation increased by 3.1% year-over-year, in line with market expectations. * YoY US PCE: 2.8%, vs 2.9% previous and 2.9% expected * YoY US Core PCE: 3.

Truflation Data Shift Alert - March 12, 2026

Truflation Data Shift Alert - March 12, 2026

We have registered 2 major upwards shift in inflation this week: Today, March 12, Truflation US CPI jumped from 1.08% to 1.21%. This move has been driven solely by rising gasoline prices. Average national gasoline prices at the pump rose by 5.7% YoY, from 6.64% to