Import-Export come in scorching hot but still below expectations

BLS just released its March 2026 Import & Export Prices.

Import

In March, U.S. import prices rose 2.1% year-over-year, up from 1% in Feb and 0.3% in Jan, the highest since Dec 2024, and slightly above the market consensus of 2%.

On a month-over-month basis, import prices increased 0.8% in March, significantly below the market consensus of 2% and below last month's 0.9%, but still one of the highest increases in 4 years.

This means, the sticky import costs are likely to feed into producer and eventually consumer prices in the near future slowing or reversing some of the disinflationary trends we have been seeing in our real-time price data.

Export:

U.S. export prices rose by 5.6% year-on-year in March 2026, the highest since the end of 2022, and up from 3.8% the prior month. On a monthly basis, prices increased 1.6% in March, down from 1.9% last month.

Higher export prices signal improving pricing power for U.S. manufacturers abroad, but they also risk widening trade imbalances if the dollar remains strong.

Potential Scenario: Higher export prices + a stable dollar = foreign buyers purchase fewer U.S. goods (lower export volume). If at the same time imports remain attractive and cheaper in dollar terms, the trade deficit widens.

Overall, the latest BLS reports show signs of increased inflation and inflationary drivers, but still come in below market expectations, as seen in March PPI.

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