Truflation

Beige Book: oil everywhere, prices still climbing, consumers splitting by income

The Fed’s October Beige Book reads like a supply-shock report. Here’s how it lines up with Truflation’s daily data.

Daily Macro with Truman

Truflation subscribers can now get daily insights from Truman, our harness and proprietary macro agent delivered straight to their inbox. Each briefing cuts through the noise to highlight the developments that matter most, backed by credible sources and clear evidence. It’s a simple, convenient way to stay informed about

What you need to know about the U.S. August PPI release

The BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) for August has accelerated again, with headline PPI rising 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY, reinforcing evidence that upstream inflationary pressures remain elevated.  However, the composition of the increase is important. The acceleration was driven by energy prices, which surged 4.2% MoM,

ISM Services PMI Report: Key Takeaways

The August 2026 ISM Services PMI report was just released. Here's everything you need to know as well as Truflation's analysis from Oliver Rust, our Head of Data, to get ahead.

Kevin Warsh asked the Fed to stop setting policy on stale data. Here is what that costs, measured.

Note from Stefan Rust, Founder & CEO of Truflation In his first Jackson Hole address as Chairman, Kevin Warsh gave a speech that reads less like a rate signal and more like a data mandate. He refused forward guidance. He refused a mechanical reaction function and he opened with a

Truman: Our macro agent to talk to the economy in real time

1 year in the making. We just shipped Truman V2, our very own proprietary macro agent to understand and talk to the economy in real time. General-purpose AI can explain economics. Truman can actively research it. Not hallucinations but evidence based investigations and insights.Truman connects real-time economic

Truflation vs BLS CPI: A Food Inflation Divergence

For July, The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI reported a headline inflation of 3.4% YoY and core inflation of 2.5% YoY. Truflation was spot on with its core inflation forecast, which is particularly significant given that core components account for nearly 80% of the CPI basket. The difference

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Truflation: BEA PCE Price Index Monthly Report - May 2026

Inflation Status The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on June 25. As the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the report will serve as a critical data point for markets assessing the likely path of monetary

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Truflation BLS CPI Forecast and US Monthly Inflation Report - May 2026.

Economic Overview Despite ongoing concerns about inflation, interest rates, and household finances, U.S. consumer spending remains remarkably resilient. Census Bureau retail sales data shows total sales increased by 4.9% year over year in April, up from 4.2% in March. Even excluding gasoline purchases, spending growth accelerated to

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Truflation BEA PCE Price Index - Monthly Report - April 2026

Inflation Status - Gas, Gas, and more Gas The story behind April’s PCE Price Index is once again oil and its increasingly broad impact across the inflation basket. Oil prices have been highly volatile throughout April. West Texas Intermediate crude opened April at $100.12 per barrel, fell to $82.

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April CPI Number - Oliver Rust Commentary

CPI came in "Hotter than Expected," "Highest in Three Years," but…. …it was driven by energy and an imputed methodological error in Shelter. Prices paid by consumers for goods and services, as measured by the BLS CPI, rose faster than expected in April. Another sharp increase

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April BLS CPI & Truflation's CPI Spaces Recap - May 12, 2026

May 12, 8 AM ET, Truflation hosted its monthly X Spaces session to share our CPI forecast and economic report highlights ahead of the official BLS release. The session featured Truflation's Head of Data, Oliver Rust, presenting the proprietary forecast, followed by a discussion with economists and market

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Truflation Launches T-1: The CPI Forecast the Market Has Been Missing

Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its Consumer Price Index report at 8:30 AM ET. Every month, markets react. Traders scramble, portfolios shift, and everyone rushes to figure out what it means for them — all in the same 30-second window. That window just got a lot

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The Frozen Labor Market: AI, Automation, and the Quiet Before the Storm

The U.S. labor market looks quiet from the outside. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 6.9 million job openings, layoffs little changed at 1.9 million, and quits holding at 3.2 million — all as of March 2026. Recent Unemployment weekly reports looked technically positive, with the lowest

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Urea, Fertilizer, and Food Prices. More Inflation on the Horizon?

Urea Supply Disruptions 2026: Geopolitics Just Turned Fertilizer into a Major Inflation Risk As macro analysts tracking inflation dynamics through the Truflation lens, we’re always watching commodity supply shocks that hit agricultural input costs, food CPI components, and broader market volatility head-on. Right now, the urea market stands

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Iran-Hormuz Tensions Escalate Sharply on May 4, 2026

President Trump launched "Project Freedom" today, deploying U.S. Navy destroyers, over 100 aircraft, and 15,000 personnel to escort stranded commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The operation aims to break the Iranian-imposed restrictions on neutral shipping amid the ongoing dual blockade. Key incidents today:

Product Updates

Truflation Argentina CPI – The Upcoming 2026 Weight Update

Truflation is pleased to announce the completion of the annual review and approval of updated expenditure weights for the Truflation Argentina CPI Inflation Index. The Truflation CPI Board has reviewed the latest available data on Argentina's household consumption patterns and approved the updated weights. These changes will take

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Truflation on Fox Business

0:00 /0:23 1× Truflation was discussed on Fox Business again today, this time by Mike Lee, the Founder of Michael Lee Strategy, in the context of Kevin Warsh's calls for reforms to inflation measurement and methodologies. "Kevin Warsh is all about looking for alternative sources

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ECB Bank Lending Survey Q1 2026: Banks Slam the Brakes on Credit

ECB Bank Lending Survey was published 28 April 2026 The latest Euro Area Bank Lending Survey just put a big question mark over future credit amid geopolitical and energy shocks. Euro-area banks tightened credit standards more aggressively than expected in Q1 2026, driven by soaring risk perceptions, lower risk

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Slasher Miran vs. Fed Hawks – FOMC 28-29 April

Yesterday’s FOMC Bloodbath Was the Most Divisive Meeting in 34 Years. Here’s the Full Scoop (and What It Means for Your Next Rate Cut) Yesterday’s FOMC meeting on April 29, 2026, was not the snooze-fest everyone expected. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at

Product Updates

Truflation BEA PCE as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE

Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics Version 1.0 - April 10, 2026  1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy.  Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by

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Truflation BEA PCE as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE

Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics Version 1.0 - April 10, 2026  1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy.  Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by

Product Updates

Truflation PCE Divergence Index is Now Live

In a world where inflation data moves markets and shapes policy, timing is everything. Today, Truflation is proud to launch the Truflation BEA PCE Divergence Index (TruPCEDIV), a powerful new tool that shines a real-time spotlight on the gap between official BEA PCE numbers and Truflation’s PCE index.

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Truflation US CPI as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE Index

Version 1.0 - April 2, 2026 Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics 1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy.  Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by

Product Updates

Truflation US CPI as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE Index

Version 1.0 - April 2, 2026 Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics 1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy.  Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by