Truflation

Basic

Truflation: BEA PCE Price Index Monthly Report - May 2026

Inflation Status The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on June 25. As the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the report will serve as a critical data point for markets assessing the likely path of monetary

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Truflation BLS CPI Forecast and US Monthly Inflation Report - May 2026.

Economic Overview Despite ongoing concerns about inflation, interest rates, and household finances, U.S. consumer spending remains remarkably resilient. Census Bureau retail sales data shows total sales increased by 4.9% year over year in April, up from 4.2% in March. Even excluding gasoline purchases, spending growth accelerated to

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Truflation BEA PCE Price Index - Monthly Report - April 2026

Inflation Status - Gas, Gas, and more Gas The story behind April’s PCE Price Index is once again oil and its increasingly broad impact across the inflation basket. Oil prices have been highly volatile throughout April. West Texas Intermediate crude opened April at $100.12 per barrel, fell to $82.

News

April CPI Number - Oliver Rust Commentary

CPI came in "Hotter than Expected," "Highest in Three Years," but…. …it was driven by energy and an imputed methodological error in Shelter. Prices paid by consumers for goods and services, as measured by the BLS CPI, rose faster than expected in April. Another sharp increase

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April BLS CPI & Truflation's CPI Spaces Recap - May 12, 2026

May 12, 8 AM ET, Truflation hosted its monthly X Spaces session to share our CPI forecast and economic report highlights ahead of the official BLS release. The session featured Truflation's Head of Data, Oliver Rust, presenting the proprietary forecast, followed by a discussion with economists and market

Truflation Launches T-1: The CPI Forecast the Market Has Been Missing

Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its Consumer Price Index report at 8:30 AM ET. Every month, markets react. Traders scramble, portfolios shift, and everyone rushes to figure out what it means for them — all in the same 30-second window. That window just got a lot

News

The Frozen Labor Market: AI, Automation, and the Quiet Before the Storm

The U.S. labor market looks quiet from the outside. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 6.9 million job openings, layoffs little changed at 1.9 million, and quits holding at 3.2 million — all as of March 2026. Recent Unemployment weekly reports looked technically positive, with the lowest

News

Urea, Fertilizer, and Food Prices. More Inflation on the Horizon?

Urea Supply Disruptions 2026: Geopolitics Just Turned Fertilizer into a Major Inflation Risk As macro analysts tracking inflation dynamics through the Truflation lens, we’re always watching commodity supply shocks that hit agricultural input costs, food CPI components, and broader market volatility head-on. Right now, the urea market stands

Iran-Hormuz Tensions Escalate Sharply on May 4, 2026

President Trump launched "Project Freedom" today, deploying U.S. Navy destroyers, over 100 aircraft, and 15,000 personnel to escort stranded commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The operation aims to break the Iranian-imposed restrictions on neutral shipping amid the ongoing dual blockade. Key incidents today:

Product Updates

Truflation Argentina CPI – The Upcoming 2026 Weight Update

Truflation is pleased to announce the completion of the annual review and approval of updated expenditure weights for the Truflation Argentina CPI Inflation Index. The Truflation CPI Board has reviewed the latest available data on Argentina's household consumption patterns and approved the updated weights. These changes will take

News

Truflation on Fox Business

0:00 /0:23 1× Truflation was discussed on Fox Business again today, this time by Mike Lee, the Founder of Michael Lee Strategy, in the context of Kevin Warsh's calls for reforms to inflation measurement and methodologies. "Kevin Warsh is all about looking for alternative sources

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ECB Bank Lending Survey Q1 2026: Banks Slam the Brakes on Credit

ECB Bank Lending Survey was published 28 April 2026 The latest Euro Area Bank Lending Survey just put a big question mark over future credit amid geopolitical and energy shocks. Euro-area banks tightened credit standards more aggressively than expected in Q1 2026, driven by soaring risk perceptions, lower risk

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Slasher Miran vs. Fed Hawks – FOMC 28-29 April

Yesterday’s FOMC Bloodbath Was the Most Divisive Meeting in 34 Years. Here’s the Full Scoop (and What It Means for Your Next Rate Cut) Yesterday’s FOMC meeting on April 29, 2026, was not the snooze-fest everyone expected. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at

Product Updates

Truflation BEA PCE as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE

Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics Version 1.0 - April 10, 2026  1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy.  Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by

Basic

Truflation BEA PCE as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE

Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics Version 1.0 - April 10, 2026  1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy.  Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by

Product Updates

Truflation PCE Divergence Index is Now Live

In a world where inflation data moves markets and shapes policy, timing is everything. Today, Truflation is proud to launch the Truflation BEA PCE Divergence Index (TruPCEDIV), a powerful new tool that shines a real-time spotlight on the gap between official BEA PCE numbers and Truflation’s PCE index.

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Truflation US CPI as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE Index

Version 1.0 - April 2, 2026 Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics 1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy.  Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by

Product Updates

Truflation US CPI as a Leading Indicator of the BEA PCE Index

Version 1.0 - April 2, 2026 Empirical Evidence of Signal Lead and Regime-Dependent Dynamics 1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy.  Traditional measures such as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), published by

Product Updates

Truflation CPI UK Index – 2026 Weight Update Announcement

Truflation is pleased to announce the completion of the annual review and approval of updated expenditure weights for the Truflation CPI UK Index (TruCPI-UK). The Truflation CPI Board met to discuss the standard annual weighing changes, which reflect the latest available data on UK household consumption patterns. The Board

News

Truflation Now on Kalshi - Real-Time Inflation Data Meets Prediction Markets

We're excited to announce that a suite of Truflation indexes is now live and tradable on Kalshi, the leading U.S.-regulated prediction market platform. This integration brings our independent, real-time macroeconomic data directly into event contracts, allowing traders, hedgers, and forecasters to take positions on daily

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Truflation March Inflation Report & BLS CPI Prediction

Economic Overview Economic growth slowed more than expected in the final quarter of 2025. GDP rose just 0.7% in Q4, down from the initial estimate of 1.4% and a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% expansion in Q3. The slowdown was largely driven by a prolonged government shutdown,

Reports

Truflation as a Leading Indicator of the Official BLS CPI Inflation Measure

This is an updated report based on the latest regression analysis by the Truflation data team.  1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy. Traditional measures such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by the

News

Get Ready for the US CPI Release. Your Edge Is Here

This week is all about inflation, with the upcoming February PCE and March CPI being released April 9 and 10, respectively. With the next official BLS CPI just around the corner, Truflation has you covered with our exclusive monthly report containing the much-coveted BLS CPI forecast. The report drops

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Truflation CPI a Leading Indicator of the BLS CPI

This is an updated report based on the latest regression analysis by the Truflation data team.  1. Introduction Truflation provides a high-frequency, data-driven measure of inflation designed to reflect real-time price dynamics across the economy. Traditional measures such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by the

News

Truflation Launches an Independent Benchmark for U.S. Pay Inflation

Truflation is proud to announce the official release of the Truflation U.S. Pay Index (TruPay-US Index), a next-generation measure of pay growth across the American labor market. Designed as a timely and transparent alternative to traditional wage indicators, the TruPay-US Index tracks overall pay inflation by